Does anyone believe there won't be a fight over the estate?

Watching CNN in the locker room at the gym. Apparently yesterday, Michael Jackson's family said there would be a 30 car motorcade to take MJ's body to Neverland for public viewing. Today they announced it won't happen. The "news" commentator asked the rhetorical question, what changed in the last 24 hours?

What changed was that details of MJ's will were released this morning and his family discovered they aren't going to have access to his money. It's all going into a trust for his children. When the family learned they would have to pay for the whole carnival out of their own pockets, of course it got called off.

And now the final soap opera of Michael Jackson's tragic life begins.

Don't kid yourself. It's all about the money.

Thoughts about Iran

A lot of people have been changing their profile on Twitter to make it appear that they are from Iran in hopes that this helps Iranian dissidents. The Iranian government was interfering with Twitter accounts from Iran and by adding a lot of non-Iranian accounts to the mix, the task of censoring Twitter, so the argument goes, would be too difficult for the "primitive" Iranian government.

Of course, now Iran is just banning Twitter, so this doesn't do any good at all.

I hate to tell you this, but the "revolution" in Iran is not going to get any further than the 1989 "revolution" in China. (Remember Tiananmen Square?)


Of course Iran blames the US. Everyone always looks for an external enemy on which to blame domestic problems. Nazi Germany blamed the Jews. The U.S. blames Islamic extremists. The tactic is several thousand years old (read the Bible) and it always works. It doesn't matter that it is all lies, it always works.


The "revolution" in Iran is over. The "opposition" has lost. I wish there was something I could do that would make a difference, but there isn't.

I had thought about starting a Twitter account under the name Ayatollah Khomeini and posting such messages as "Did the prophet say you must live in fear?" and "Where in the Koran does it say that the government has the right to oppress the people?' etc. But since no one in Iran will ever read such things, why bother? Besides, I would have to have it all translated into Persian. Logistical nightmare.


Part of the reason that this revolution is doomed is that Iran is not ready for revolution. It is too introspective, too conservative. A revolution, at least the type envisioned by young Western liberals, requires a willingness to leap into the unknown.

Allowing the people to decide the fate of a nation requires the willingness to accept mistakes, Look at the US. We make horrible mistakes (George W. Bush, for example.) But we recover from these mistakes. The people, interested only in their self interest, stagger from one extreme to another. And in doing so, achieve some sort of balance. They bounce back and forth between one extreme and the other. First George W. Bush. Then Barack Obama.

That's freedom. That's the beauty of American style democracy. We can have both George Bush AND Barack Obama.

But Iran can't. Their establishment is unwilling to risk letting the people decide, because they are afraid the people will make the wrong decision. That's the difference between the US and Iran. The US CAN risk having the people make the wrong decision. BECAUSE if it is the wrong decision, the people can change their mind and take the country in the opposite direction. And if that goes too far, the people take the country back, elect new leaders, and go staggering off in the other direction.

But Iran does not have faith in its people. Iran doesn't understand that while the people make mistakes, they always correct themselves. In Iran, everything must be perfect. Everything must be according to Allah's plan. Nothing can go wrong.

And, therefore, everything is wrong.

Iran can not correct itself. One ideological party had control of Iran and it will never admit to its mistakes. Look at what Ayatollah Khamenei has said. He knows there have been irregularities in the voting, but he can not believe that it is possible that the ruling cabal could actually lose the election. He can't believe that the people want something different. He can't accept that the people think he is wrong.

And so it goes. Until finally, there is violence unimaginable.

That's the future of Iran. When finally there is violence unimaginable, there will be change. that is the only way it will happen. A lot of people will have to die. A lot of blood will have to be shed. The Iranian elite will not give up power except through force of arms.

Unless, of course, it goes the way the Soviet Union went. But the Soviet Union collapsed because it was exhausted. Has the Iranian fundamentalist revolution finally exhausted itself? I don't think so. It has a ways to go.

Anarchos

I have noticed a marked increase in people blowing through red lights and stop signs, and ignoring white lines in the highway. When the basic rules like traffic laws break down, can the rest of civilization be far behind?

The Shrinking Republican Party

Arlen Specter left the Republican Party. Why? Because he said polls showed he couldn't win the Republican primary when he next has to run for the Senate. (Maybe term limits are not such a bad idea.)

What did Arlen see in those polls? Probably that the GOP is shrinking into a coterie of religious right zealots who would rather remain wedded to the faith than get elected.

I believe there is a battle going on for control of the Republican Party. The recent "tea bag" protests were an attempt by the fiscal conservatives to assert primacy. They flexed their muscles, not so much to derail Obama's legislation, but to push down their rivals within the GOP.

Their major opponent is Sarah Palin and the religious right, who have been on the assent since the election. With God on their side, they believe now is their time to seize the Republican Party and eventually to assume control of the US Government.

The balance of power may lie with the ideological conservatives. They have tried to use the religious right to provide manpower for the campaigns but keep them out of any position of real power. The right probably will not accept this any more.

The ideological conservatives have to decide if they are going to sleep with the religious right or the fiscal conservatives.

If they join with the religious right, they risk becoming an emasculated wing of a smaller, more rigid GOP. The fiscal conservatives probably will join an expanded, yet still ineffective, Libertarian Party.

If the fiscal and ideological conservatives join, the GOP will probably split into two parties, a Christian party and a Conservative party. Anyone's guess which one keeps the name Republican.

But either scenario means the GOP's political power is seriously waning. Arlen Specter knows the ship is sinking and is likely the first of many to jump overboard.

Republican Budget Proposal

The media has been all awash with the House Republicans' alternative budget proposal. The GOP says the Democrat proposal is a disaster and have positioned their version as the responsible alternative.

Aren't these the same people, almost to a man (and token non-man), who have been telling anyone who will listen that they want Barack Obama to fail? And they want us to take them seriously when they say their proposal is responsible?

Why would you want to saddle the government, the entity that we are desperately hoping will rescue us from the worse economy since the Great Depression, with a budget designed by people who want the government to fail? Sounds a bit irresponsible to me.

Is this something you would do in real life? (As opposed to political fantasy.)

Would you accept something from someone who wishes to do you harm? Say, accept a ride from a known serial killer? Rush into a burning building because your spouse with whom you are locked in a contentious divorce says the floor won't collapse for a while yet? Place bets in a casino you saw featured on Sixty Minutes in a story about how all their games are fixed?

Are you that stupid?

What Does Rush Want?

Rush Limbaugh has said, unapologetically, that he hopes Obama fails.

So what does that mean he hopes for you and me?

Limbaugh on Obama